wolf rider vs heavy cavalry vs maths in WB

[szymraszyn]

dear warlords,
Let's try to imagine one situation. you have 1 heavy cavalry and you have to attack either one of two cities (wall 0). in first one there is 1 wolf rider, in the second one is heavy cavalry just like yours. Which city would you attack to have bigger chances to win?
Correct answer is:
second city.
When you attack it you have 50% chanse to win, it is simple, isn't it?
When you attack first city (with wolf rider) you have 49% chance to win!
chance (of wolf rider) to win = 16%(ambush works) + 18%(ambush don't work, but you loose 1 heart) + 17% (ambush don't work you loose 0 hearts) = 51% !!!!!!!
I hope it will help you in future battles,
szymraszyn

[szymraszyn]

This result is aproximate, but for sure even a bit bigger than 51

[fantastory]

Incredible. How did you calculated this?

[szymraszyn]

16% - ambush works
9% - heavy cavalery losts 1 heart, wolf losts 1 heart, then heavy cavalery losts 1 heart and dies = 20/45 * 25/45 * 20/45 * 84/100
9% - wolf losts 1 heart, then heavy cavalery losts 2 hearts and dies = 25/45 * 20/45 * 20/45 * 84/100
17% - heavy cavalery losts 2 hearts and dies = 20/45 * 20/45 * 84/100
9% + 9% + 16% + 17% = 51%
25/45 - chanse that wolf will lost 1 heart
20/45 - chanse that heavy cavalery will lost 1 heart
To calcute probablity that your opponent will lost 1 heart you have to this:
your probability to hit enemy once = your strenght/ (oppontnt strenght + your strenght)
in this case you have to multiply result *84/100 because we consider case when ambush fails (84% of cases)

[szymraszyn]

so, wolf rider is a bit better vs heavy cavalery, but how do you think, which one is better overall?

[szymraszyn]

In mean wolf is a bit better in combat in city

[Negern]

In mean wolf is a bit better in combat in city

I think the wolf is better against stronger units and the HC against weaker units.
I mean wolf against anything, no matter how strong, will have at least the chance to crit.
A HC against several crows or scouts or other weak units will have more use of it's 5 str bonus than a one off chance to crit one weak unit.

[szymraszyn]

yes, I think overall wolf rider is better for 3 reasons
1 he beats heavy cavalery in 1vs1
2 there are more units stronger than wolf rider and heavy cavalery so when we choose random unit, it is more likely that wolf will beat it
3 morale +5 on swamp/forest is better than strenght +10 on open, especialy, when wolf lead big army

[makmak]

In the specific example:
First case is 50%
Second case:
I am ansure if ambush 18 gives 18% or 17% chances to assasinate
My math give 49.7% if 18% and 50.3% if 17%

Since this is approximation chances are practically equal!!!


Maybe this was the reason the game designers gave this 18 ambush to wolf and not 15 or 20
To make them equal


If we have to decide which unit is better the choice should be based on terrain.

[szymraszyn]

ambush 18 gives 18% to assasinate. Even on the map where is much open and some forrest and swamps wolf is better because:
he can end his turn on open
morale is MUCH better than personal bonuses, because it boosts all stuck. it is like paladin would have almost the same strenght as barbarian, the choose would be very simple then, wouldn't it?