Stange Combat Result

[KGB]

In the combat screen I got this:

Probability to win:
Attacker: 100%
Defender: 0%
Battle outcome: 4.2%

What does this mean?

Obviously I am 100% of the time going to win. The only question is how much damage am I going to take. However I thought that results less than 10% weren't going to happen? So how do I end up with a 4.2% outcome?

KGB

[piranha]

This mean that the outcome that happened was 4% chance. If say its 1 unit vs 1 unit fight the acctual outcome will be pretty big since there are few combinations. If its 8vs8 units for example there are many combinations which mean that many outcomes will be less than 10% but still valid. The 10% are cut at the edges as they are the extreme outcomes.

[KGB]

Piranha,

Guess I should have provided more detail.

The battle in question featured a bat against my 2 orcs and a giant.

Now when I run my combat simulator (10000 runs) I get a result of:

Enemy wins: 13
My wins: 399 (1 man), 2007 (2 men), 7581 (3 men)

Now the result of the battle was I was left with 1 man, my Giant. But this shouldn't be possible since the results should line up as.

13 : 7581 2007 399

And cutting left-to-right you'd get 7581 2007 399. Then cutting right-to-left you'd get 7581 2007.

So I should have won with either 3 or 2 men left.

However the result was I was left with only my Giant which is 4% (399/10000). Hence my question about how this happened.

KGB

[piranha]

What was the terrain? Any buildings or ruins? I tested to attack a bat on grassland with 2 orc and a giant and I get 100% to win. Seems like the bat must have been better than a str 1 unit.

Still seems strange, which game was it in? Anything that I can look at?

[KGB]

Piranha,

It was on the hills.

I just went back and looked again. I actually had 4 Orcs and a Giant against his bat and I lost 2 Orcs (that part I remembered right).

Re-running the combat makes no difference with those extra 2 units since the only significant outcomes are the first 2 Orcs due to their high winning percentage. Adding 2 extra units means nothing since the combat should have ended before it ever got to the 3rd unit.

It's in the game I resigned in. My last turn (11). My first attack that turn against Pillager (before I attacked your hero).

KGB

[KGB]

Piranha,

A few more things for you to consider.

In another game today twice I have attacked a neutral city with 4 units. Both times the battle said I was 90+% likely to win. In both combats I lost 3 men and only won with my last man left.

One battle said this was 13% likely. The other said it was 7% likely (which again probably shouldn't be possible). I know the game hates me but this is ridiculous It's as if I am getting the worst possible result every time when there are large numbers of units involved (in my other games I've typically only had 2-3 men tops when attacking).

Game 691 - Slaughter if you are interested.

KGB

[KGB]

Piranha,

Do you think we might get the full combat roll view option added back to the combat replay screen?

I seem to be on an awful run of bad luck in the last 2-3 days in multiple games. As in I've lost at least 4-5 battles where I was an 80+% favorite. On top of that there have been another 3-4 battles where I was 90%+ favorite that required 3 of my 4 or 4 of my 5 man stack to kill a single unit. That's an extremely bad luck run or something is wrong. The latest was today where I had a blessed Pegasi (7 str) attack a light infantry in a L1 neutral (3 str). I was reported as an 88% favorite and I lost without the Lt Infantry even taking a hit.

It's gotten to the point where I am afraid to attack anything unless I am a 90+% favorite and even then I expect to lose all but 1 man in my stack. Some bad luck is expected but I've reached the paranoid level now.

KGB

P.S. The battle speed slider seems backwards to me. Cranking to 1000 slows the battle down while dropping it to 1 speeds it up. I would expect the opposite to occur.

[Moonknight]

KGB, the game obviously just has it in for you...

I've had several battles today and they all went as expected...

[piranha]

KGB: When the battle is completed, click the i button. You can find some more details there.

[piranha]

I've seen some results now that the simulator should have stopped now so I'll start to investergate this soon.