Combat Outcome - Chance, Luck or Real Math?

[Manukai]

Would anyone with a good understanding about how battle math plays out please explain these two fights for me? The first is an attack of a castle and I've only pasted the last half of the combat where the minotaur and dragon are slain by a scorpion. The second battle is where an eagle single handedly defends itself against a pegasus and gryphon.

I just don't understand how these battle outcomes are possible. Is any outcome possible with a bad roll? Does it all come down to the luck of the dice?


Ambush roll:
Defender: Scorpion rolls 33 (0) Miss!

Battle roll:39
Attacker chance:(55.22%)
Defender chance:(44.78%)
Attackers: Minotaur is injured

Battle roll:42
Attacker chance:(55.22%)
Defender chance:(44.78%)
Attackers: Minotaur is slayed

Ambush roll:
Attacker: RedDragon rolls 58 (0) Miss!


Battle roll:15
Attacker chance:(64.85%)
Defender chance:(35.15%)
Attackers: RedDragon is injured

Battle roll:37
Attacker chance:(64.85%)
Defender chance:(35.15%)
Defenders: Scorpion is injured

Battle roll:16
Attacker chance:(64.85%)
Defender chance:(35.15%)
Attackers: RedDragon is slayed


And here is the eagle fight....

Ambush roll:
Attacker: Pegasi rolls 46 (0) Miss!
Defender: Eagle rolls 50 (0) Miss!


Battle roll:3
Attacker chance:(44.4%)
Defender chance:(55.6%)
Attackers: Pegasi is injured

Battle roll:74
Attacker chance:(44.4%)
Defender chance:(55.6%)
Defenders: Eagle is injured

Battle roll:27
Attacker chance:(44.4%)
Defender chance:(55.6%)
Attackers: Pegasi is slayed

Ambush roll:
Attacker: Gryphon rolls 10 (0) Miss!


Battle roll:17
Attacker chance:(50%)
Defender chance:(50%)
Attackers: Gryphon is injured

Battle roll:14
Attacker chance:(50%)
Defender chance:(50%)
Attackers: Gryphon is slayed

[KGB]

Manukai,

What would you like explained?

The percentages show the chance to get a hit for each unit. So in the first battle, Attacker 55.22% says the Minotaur has a 55% chance to get a hit and the Scorpion has a 44.78% chance.

The odds of losing both the Minotaur and Dragon to the Scorpion are roughly 9%. So you were definitely very unlucky (you were a 11-1 favorite there).
The second battle odds are about 24% likely. So you were unlucky but not extremely unlucky like in the first battle (you were a 3-1 favorite there).

KGB

[Manukai]

My confusion revolves around the battle points. How can an eagle with battle 10 beat a pegasus with battle 25 +6 morale and a gryphon with battle 30? (I was the one with the eagle by the way). The roll of eagle vs. gryphon was 50/50. How is that percentage possible with those battle points?

Or a scorpion battle 15 in a +10 city walls beats a minataur battle 25 +5 city +12 from Dragon morale and a dragon 40 battle + 12 morale?

This is why I titled this subject Combat Outcome - Chance, Luck or Real Math because I just don't get how based on battle numbers that this is possible. Could you please explain how that works out mathematically?

Thanks

[Moonknight]

Manukai, Eagles get +26 versus flying units, like the Pegasus and Griffon...

[magian]

Manukai,

What other units were in the stack with the scorpion? Units that supply bonuses continue to provide those bonuses for the entire battle (even after they have been killed). Multiple scorpions stacked together get a swarm bonus, they would continue to provide that bonus posthumously. So, there could be a number of ways that the scorpions's strength could be boosted.

[kenc80]

whoa whoa whoa, since when did unit stack bonuses continue on after unit death? Has this always been the case?

[magian]

I believe that has always been the case since OG Warlords.

[Manukai]

Manukai, Eagles get +26 versus flying units, like the Pegasus and Griffon...

Well holy crap, yes they do. That's a nasty fighting machine against other flying units and makes it the best anti-air unit after the wizard.

As for the scorpion it was stacked with another scorpion that got killed off. Very good to know that dead units bonuses remain throughout the battle. Knowing that really changes everything from a unit stacking strategy for me.

Thanks for the explanations.

[KGB]

Kenc80,

whoa whoa whoa, since when did unit stack bonuses continue on after unit death? Has this always been the case?

This wasn't the case in Beta2. It got fixed in Beta3 and beyond to work like the original Warlords game.

KGB

[KGB]

Very good to know that dead units bonuses remain throughout the battle. Knowing that really changes everything from a unit stacking strategy for me.

It's the 10th commandment in the 10 commandments (see Strategy forum).

KGB