questions i'd really like to know the answer

[KGB]

Which part are you having trouble with

The attacker chance to win is 99% / defender is 1% which totals 100% as it must.
Probability to win is 89%. This comes from 'Total battle 65 - 100 89%' since the total army strength is (30+25+10=65). So the 90% rule in place for this battle is really the 89% rule.

The actual battle outcome is 10.2%. So 10.2% of the time this battle takes place the attacker will win with just 1 unit left.

Because there are only 3 total outcomes and because we know the defender win % is 1% the 3 outcomes are:
Defender wins 1%
Attacker wins 1 man left 10.2%
Attacker wins 2 men left 88.8%

When these are placed for smoothing you get:
1 | 10.2 | 88.8

You then remove 11% from each side. On the right side there is nothing to remove since 88.8 > 11. On the left side you remove only the 1 since 1+10.2>11.

So valid outcomes for this battle are 10.2 and 88.8.

KGB

[gil]

thx got that