by TheVic » Sun Apr 21, 2013 9:42 pm
Looks reasonabel
The ranger was facing a flyer in the picture:
Attacker: 25 +12UL +5AA = 42 hit strength vs Eagle
Then I expect the Attacker hit strength was only 37 when fighting your hero.
Defender: 25 + 12UL + 5Ruin = 42 hit strength
Gives 18/(42+18)=30% Eagle Hit percentage.
Edit: No, wrong. It gives eagle 0,18*0,58 / (0,18*0,58 + 0,82*0,42) = 23% to hit.
42/(42+37)=53% Defender Hero Hit Percentage
Edit: No, wrong. It givens defender 0,42*0,63 / (0,42*0,63 + 0,58*0,37) = 55% to hit
P(0 hit on attacker)= 0,77*0,77*0,45*0,45= 0,12006225
P(1 hit on attacker)= 2*0,23*0,77*0,77*0,45*0,45 + 2*0,77*0,77*0,55*0,45*0,45= 0,18729711
P(2 hit on attacker)= 0,23*0,23 + 2*0,23*0,77*0,23 + 2*0,23*0,77*0,77*0,55 + 2*0,23*0,77*0,77*0,45*0,55 + 2*0,77*0,77*0,45*0,55*0,55 + 0,77*0,77*0,55*0,55= 0,69264064
Verification: P=0,12006225+0,18729711+0,69264064=1