Bad dice

[Igor]

Tim, if you play only for fun and needn't worry about bad dice now, this will be a surprise for you that bad dice is a big wall on way to get wishful result in ladder games or in tourney.

[piranha]

KGB I see what you mean but I must say it probably requires that you have a simulator and a scout attack first to see the enemy units to calculate the probability and then in some cases you could add/remove a unit and possibly gain from that. With my suggestion to make it gradual instead of 5% steps i think the gain from a extra unit will be bigger than the gain from lowering or increasing the cutoff.

I can see your point with negative bonuses.

How would a luck bonus work? By changing the 90% rule to 85%? That bonus would be a stability bonus because you reduce the extremes or are you thinking something else that is only a bonus for the side carrying the bonus?

[KGB]

Piranha,

A 'luck/battle' bonus would only be for the side with the bonus. So if your side had a 5% luck bonus then only your side of the equation gets an extra 5% (90 to 85 if you are the favorite or 10 to 5 if you are the underdog). Certain items could also add a luck bonus (Rafeals crown for example could change the +1 View to +1 Luck and be a more valuable item than it is now. Some L2 items could give +2 and some L3 items +3).

One last point about lowering the dice from 90 to 80. Regardless of whether it's gradual (1% every 75 points for example would be a good threshold), once you pass 84-16, you have a chance to invalidate a single Wolfrider from his chance to get a kill from ambush if the enemy unit chance of living is greater than the dice range. For example at 80-20, if the first unit in the enemy stack has a survival chance >20% (say a Barb or a Gryphon up front in a city etc) then that unit can't be killed. This happens right now with a single Orc and his 6% where in most battles a lone Orc by himself can't make a kill from ambush because the 6% chance is too low to count.

KGB

[Igor]

Let me offer to put a look on another way to limit bad dice. This method is very easy.
2 first steps is the same:
1. To count points 60 or so, 400 or so, including bonuses.
2. To count safe zone for current size of points - 90-85-80% etc.
3rd step is new:
3. Let the fight to have result what it has. It means that any number of units can be lost by side which had advantage inside safe zone. If it was 8-units stack and 7 units were lost - let it be, the main is that 8th unit was survived and won the battle.
But if all 8 units were lost, that means that the fight was lost inside safe zone, the programm will not count such result and make auto-reload of the battle with another random result which will probably victory for side in safe zone.

This method lets to loose any number of units from side which has advantage in safe zone, but it never lets to lost all the battle (never lose all units). This gives field for running of luck and in the same time it garantee from big bad dice. Battle will be won anyway, if it is in safe zone, bu result may be from 0 to 7 lost units from winner.
Looks like a simple way at first look.

[piranha]

Its a interesting bonus that we should add when we update the hero system.

About the wolfrider. To get to 84-16 there must be a bunch of units, a lone wolfrider against a single barbarian can still win. It's only when there are many units involved that a wolfrider might not be able to make his ambush but you also need to take the wolf riders battle into the calculation.

It's probably true with the orc. Not sure what his chance is when 6% + 10 battle vs a barbar for example. I always bring something with me before risking my hero.

You think:
0-75: 90
75-150: 89
150-225: 88 and so on?

[KGB]

Igor,

Actually what you wrote is exactly what happens now. If the outcome of the battle isn't valid (<10% or >90%) it's re-rolled entirely until a valid result occurs.

Piranha,

A L3 Barb with 58 strength is 83.5% likely to beat 1 Wolfrider. The Wolfriders 20 strength is meaningless in the 1v1 fight. The only chance of winning is the ambush roll. Adding more strength/hits to the Barb doesn't change the result in any manner since it's never possible to win more than 84% of the time due to the ambush. So once the dice range reaches 84-16, a Barb can never be killed by a lone Wolfrider and his ambush is useless in the same manner that a lone Orc ambush is useless now at 6%.

Now I realize a 1v1 battle won't qualify for the 84% range. But in a big hero stack I often leave my Barb up front on attack and on defense to prevent my opponent from weakening my stack with a wave of fodder units. Now I won't have to fear a lone Wolfrider (or 2 Orcs) killing my Barb in such cases.

You think:
0-75: 90
75-150: 89
150-225: 88 and so on?

Yes. Using base strength's only (no bonus). Base strength includes bless and individual bonus (+X attack, +X defend, swarm) but shouldn't include stack bonus because of how negative bonus's would get penalized. It probably should not include terrain bonus's either since the Unicorn's terrain negate would affect a battle much the same way.

I would probably limit things to 85-15 for now and see how that works out since it preserves a lone Wolfrider's ambush chance.

KGB

[Chazar]

In 1vs1, a L1 Barbarian 30/3 always beats an Orc 10/2,6%, since the Barbarian has on average 91.4%.
If the orc has +5 wall, then only a L2 Barbarian 44/3 is safe: 92.1%
If the orc has +10 or +15 wall, then only a L3 Barbarian 58/3 is safe: 91.8%

An orc's ambush chance is too small to count on its own, unless the orc has some strength bonus, which itself is meaningless, but might help to get around the 90% rule.

[tabanli]

I think what we have is enough and there is no need to make the game more difficult to learn for new comers as it is. Also every change seem to favor Barbarian. Be cause a solo Barbarian winning a 90% is not the same as Valkyrie, Paladin, Ranger, Horse Lord, DK winning it. Be cause the later stacks will loose substantial troops even if they win and became vulnerable but solo Barbarian will keep going. Also I am a bit curios about Assassin. If a sage gives +5 early on, a level 2 Assasin can have 88% personal ambush and may win 100% against one defender neutrals if we change the rule. An invincible L2 solo expanding Hero is a bit too much no?

Quote from the movie Rounders" In Confessions of a Winning Poker Player, Jack King said, "Few players recall big pots they have won, strange as it seems, but every player can remember with remarkable accuracy the outstanding tough beats of his career." It seems true to me, cause walking in here, I can hardly remember how I built my bankroll, but I can't stop thinking of how I lost it. "

We often forget the stream of incredible good luck and seem to remember the times we got unlucky.

[tabanli]

Question? 90% Rule, does it also apply to Ruins and UL ? I send a message to Solo saying that it does but now I am not sure.

About 15-20% attack yes I also do it all the time. I often send my solo L3 Barbarian to suicide missions. Than I always see a big bad Assassin stack or Medusa stack or Ghost stack coming. So instead of running, which is impossible if you are deep in a suicide mission, I slam my hero into one of the protected cities even if my chances are 15%. Or there is a Barbarian coming to your homeland and all you have is a Wolfrider, wouldn't you try?

[KGB]

Question? 90% Rule, does it also apply to Ruins and UL ? I send a message to Solo saying that it does but now I am not sure.

No, it only applies to actual combat. Ruins are simply fought 'as is'

About 15-20% attack yes I also do it all the time. I often send my solo L3 Barbarian to suicide missions. Than I always see a big bad Assassin stack or Medusa stack or Ghost stack coming. So instead of running, which is impossible if you are deep in a suicide mission, I slam my hero into one of the protected cities even if my chances are 15%. Or there is a Barbarian coming to your homeland and all you have is a Wolfrider, wouldn't you try?

Exactly! Barbarians know what kind of life they sign up for and it's not one that includes retiring in their old age

As long as the % drop really gradually from 90% (say 1% every 75 strength points not including bonuses (city, morale, fear, leadership, chaos) then it shouldn't be a problem or even a very noticeable change to the game other than having to explain it somewhere.

KGB