Salisbury, Skrypal

[Igor]

KGB, other guys in USA, also guys in EU, and maybe from UK if such ones play here.
I just read EU call back the ambassador from Russia. EU based this on situation with Skripal in Salisbury. UK blames Russia.
We in Russia read in our media that neither EU nor UK has enough evidences that Russia did this.
Russian ex sicret service officers say that there is a tradition in secret serveces not to kill disclosed spyes, ecpecially after exchange.
As Russian media tell, all that EU and UK politicians are saying is only "we suppose', "mostly probable", "who can else" or so.

Can somebody say what do western media write on this, is this only usual anty-Russian propaganda or there are some facts that can explain the situation?
All, that I know from Russian media, shows that Russia didn't do this. As this seems for me in the moment, Russia looks the last country which is interested to organize this. But I would interested to look Western point of vision - USA, EU, UK.

[fantastory]

...

[KGB]

Igor,

Here in American the media is talking very little about it. The media and the country seem 100% obsessed over which porn stars Donald Trump has fucked and who may or may not might have paid them off to not talk about it. Unless something like that happens in American or to an American it's not getting much coverage.

I have no idea whether there is an 'unwritten rule' about not killing spies after an exchange. Never heard about it but it's very possible such a thing exists because all countries have spies who are exchanged.

If you want to know who killed the guy, look and see who has the most to gain with his death. Here are the candidates:
1) Western Warmongers (these are the people who want war with Syria, North Korea, Iran, Russia, China, Afghanistan etc) because they are invested in the military industry complex (ie they supply guns, tanks, planes, bullets etc). Make no mistake this is hundreds of billions a year industry in the West so a lot of people are invested in having perpetual war/enemies that you need to be armed against.
2) Russia for the obvious reason of revenge / send a message etc.
3) A 3rd Country/Party who stands to gain if Russia is embarrassed / drawn into conflict with the West. The most obvious candidate here is the Ukraine. Another possibility would be Chechen rebels. Both stand to gain from this especially if they can garner any more US support.
4) Anti-Oil factions. These could be put under #3 or #1 but this would be a more specific reason for doing it. Russia is putting in a couple of pipelines right now. One gas one to Germany and another through Turkey and ultimately into the Balkans. A lot of countries and people don't want that for different reasons. An incident like this might be used to delay or abandon those pipelines.

I'd say it's 99% likely the culprit is one of the above 4. You can make a case for any of them.

KGB

[Igor]

There was such news in Russian media as well, that there was some actions between Trump and a porn stars. But this was a one-line news, we in Russia don't pay much attention on sexual scandals. When Bill Clinton had something with Monika Lewinsky, and she then wrote memoirs, we were laughing that Monika sucked for her memoirs. I think almost nobody in Russia blamed Bill Clinton in that. As well as nobody blamed Putin even though may be many who supposes Putin having illegal wife and illegal children. Russians think that this proves he is a powerful man still

If to return to the top news, Putin theoretically could do this to send the message to the West like this: anywhen, anywhere, for anybody can come revange. But not this time. This action was 4th of March, two weeks before President elections in Russia. Putin and his team tried to make all possible to create positive emotions in Russia to make the presece on the elections very high. Counting this, Putin is the last who was interested in this in such short time before the elections.
I think if Putin desided to do something like this, he then could make this earlier, before election in USA, in France, in Germany, in UK. Or he can do this in this May, after his innauguration. But of course not some days before own elections where he needed maximal presence of electorate.

If so this shoud be one of groups 1) 3) or 4)
One thing that I would add to this list is point 5) UK itself. UK doesn't contact with Russia on this and gives no materials of the incindent. In the same time UK organised wide hysterical spectacle on this, blaming Russia without any published evidences. If to count that UK leader Teresa May looks as political newbuy who has lost in UK parliament in discussion about leaving EU some months ago, she thus very need political capital and a support of friendly liders. And she now have got this from Europian leaders who acts togever that much remind me Soviet 'collective farm'.

As I understand, US media don't pay much attention on this.
What about Europian media, do they write empty emotions in style of usual anti-Russian propaganda or they write some factic material and serious analysis of this issue?

[Igor]

One of 3rd countries from group 3) could be Syrian rebells. If USA'lost' in Syria the formula of this chemical substance, or some deal of the substance itself, as that was with technology of umanned flying objects which attacked Russian air base in Syria, rebells can use this in a try to make Russia weaker and obstruct to help Bashar Assad's regime.

[fantastory]

Three things about the point 2).
Since people in Russia does not trust it is Putin behind the attack on Skripal.
So story is a feed for the "European media usual anti-Russian propaganda", thus doing it before election is increasing Putins popularity.
For Oligarch and it is a simple message "I am still in power, I can care for our interests."
For all other it is just a threaten.

As it goes for media in Poland, we have propaganda in medias. Currently of two opposite factions. Fortunately there are some portals showing "little mistakes" of those main medias.
But there is no evidence of anti-Russia propaganda - not sure if there is something like this in Germany but probably it is fictitious by your Russia itself jut to gain unity of people in the country.

In Poland the news you can read about Skripal are just some facts: he was poisoned, there are no proofs, there is an investigation, British blame Russia, delegates become non-gratta, they are getting better, Russian Embassy want to see daughter due to 1968 Consular Convention.
There is Korwin Mikke accusing CIA for the fact. Well I must note that Korwin has some smart things to say, but CIA could attack German or Finland agent but not the British one.

Despite all of that - for most people in Poland it is obvious that Putin stays behind this attack.
To understand why it is so obvious, one must note that not more that 30 years ago Poland was under communist regime under Russian control. People that were against that dictatorship were dying in accidents, diapering, some were officially taken into jail and put under torture.
So when we hear that a journalist Boris Nemtsov - critics of Putin died, or that anti-Russian candidate for Ukrainian presidency Wiktor Juszczenko becomes poisoned, we just remind our own experience.

Reading that one could think we are totally aginasts Russians, which is tottaly not the truth.
I myself had some fun with them came as a youth exchange. Also one must note that since we were part of soviet block we share many educational and cultural sympathy with Russia. Russians are the only, correctly naming Kuratowski-Zorn lemma.
If there would be a Fischer Kasparov match we are after the second. Well Kasparov is currently against Putin, so maybe not the best point here.

We just think Russians are under regime with the same origin we were not so far ago.

[Igor]

Fantastory in some part you were speaking as you still live in 20th century with communism. Do you know that socialistic block was broken as well as soviet empire was? If you still don't know let me inform you this happened in 1991. Communist party in Russia is now a little party of political losers.
If you got some pain from communists, this may be. Don't you though think this is aready time to forgive them and to forget this? Over quater of century is ended from the soviet empire doesn't exist anymore. Do you and some of your compatriots plan to remember your hurts forever?
Poland attacked Russia a couple of centuries ago and Poland military forces was standing near Moscow. Do you think we in Russia also should to resent on this till the present? We don't.

Unfortunatelly the main thing you said is that if you suppose something without any evidences that means you count this as the obvious thing. If Poles only suppose that Russia did this, this means Poles count this as the obvious thing, as proved one. Do you use the same 'rules of law' in your courts as well? Very hope that not, otherwise your compatrionts are in big danger from your courts

I showed above that Putid didn't need in the issue near own election but you probably didn't pay much attention on this.
The only point you have analised is point 2) You didn't say even a one word to discuss points 1) 3) 4) 5). This is looking as you are preconceived on the issue.
Let me to advise you to watch wider, more openly, and to forget finally your hurts got from communists.

[Igor]

Fantastory, I should correct myself a little. You said a word on other version than point 2) This was about possible CIA action. But you corrected yourself that in this case there should be German or Finland agent under attack but not the British one. But Skripal was ex Russian agent, and if CIA wished EU or UK blaming Russia this organisation did the step for this. Why do you think this can't be so?

You said that Korwin Mikke has some smart thing to say. Does this connect the Skripal's issue? Would be interesting to hear what are these things.

Despite all of that - for most people in Poland it is obvious that Putin stays behind this attack.
To understand why it is so obvious, one must note that not more that 30 years ago Poland was under communist regime under Russian control. People that were against that dictatorship were dying in accidents, diapering, some were officially taken into jail and put under torture.
So when we hear that a journalist Boris Nemtsov - critics of Putin died, or that anti-Russian candidate for Ukrainian presidency Wiktor Juszczenko becomes poisoned, we just remind our own experience.

You in Poland really think so? Being under conrol of Russia a lot of time ago is enough for your compatriots to blame Russia without evinences? Counting this, are you sure your mind is not cuptured by anti-Russian propaganda?

Should say a couple of words to put light on Nemtsov issue you told above. I see that you in Poland know absolutally nothing on this.
First of all he never was a journalist. No one time. He was ex Russian Prime Minister and then he joined opposition, not so successefully, a very weak party, no danger for Putin. This is about who was Boris Nemtsov.
Now is how he was killed. This was very and very close to the Kremlin buiding. Killers were Chechens, 2 persons from group of 5 persons or so. They were found and condemned.
Unfortunately the organizer of this was neither found nor defined. Many analysts here in Russia supposed that this can't be exclused that the beneficiary of all this was Chechen leader Kadyrov who wished to intimidate others in power who are close to Putin. (I should say there is some hidden struggle for power under Putin in Russia.)
Putin then 'took deep breath' and hided from all for some weeks. After he came he said about Kadyrov that this man fighted against Russia, in forests as partisan. This set a big cross on Kadyrov's political ambitions. All now understand that to be a Chechen leader is the maximum for him.
In the same time Putin then gave him a medal under a some guise. That shows to everyone and to him that Putin still sees him as Chechen leader.
That's all of Nemtsov issue. Hope Fantastory you are now knowing. If you haven't close your mind for information which goes opposite your previous knowledge
(Sorry for off-top for this thread.)

[fantastory]

You try to make a laugh from me, do not do it.
You see, one looking at the topics on this forum, could think that you are a relay of Russian propaganda.
It grows when, you disrespect other writers, trying to force your point of view, rather than wanting to hear what they have to say.
Look at the responses you receive, you are given very low trust from others here.
If I add that you want me to take out that Polish politician supports Russian Crimmeria point of view, and directly says that "European Union must be destroyed" it will just make people more suspicious.

You see I would really like to know what people abroad think about issues around the world but I do not want to argue with one.
I will reply to you in calmly manner.

[fantastory]

Communist party is off by 30 years from now, but:
First it is not communism that was wrong here - communism as an utopia of equality is nothing wrong.
The wrong thing is that is was used for controlling people - limiting their rights and a voice of objections, violence of human rights.
Note that communism, socialism will always lead to such situation, so it is wrong but it is not the clue.

The second thing Putin is 60 years old. He was a part of KGB during a communism era. He was not he nominated by Jelcyn himself.
You see in Poland when system changed to multi-party, the communist used the reformation to turn them selves into businessmen which among others gave them control of the media. Which in turn allows to spread a propaganda an win free elections afterwards.
Also communists did not need to leave their influence in security services, allowing to keep power.
The government in Poland changed meaning different people in charge every 4 years, so the influence lowered.

But as we look at Russian seeing the same person in charge for 20 years it gives a clue that nothing changed there.

Remember your hurts forever...
Well we want to remember our history. But the bad and the good things.
I have specially noted that we feel sentiment with Russian culture and education, we know Tołstoi, Puszkin. We are all Slavs after all.
I did it because I do not wanted discussion to turn into some stupid historical who did what to whom.
But still knowing historical aspects is required to know both people thoughts and current political state.
This is why Americans have so hard time understanding Europe
We are not anti Russia - but we surely are anti-Putin

obvious thing without evidence...
The reason why special forces are involved is so there would be no evidence. You see those are the methods KGB used - and for us FSB is just a continuation.
We do not bring it out with out not asked so you can not say we accuse someone. But if you ask my opinion the first answer is Russia.
I have asked about 5 persons about the issue - they can debate for hours and things ends on knifes when it goes for political matters. This time there was only one answer.
As you mentioned courts. I am, not sure if you know the problem with our courts that we have with European Union currently.
Government says it is post communist post soviet staff, that had nested here and want to change it.

Putin didn't need in the issue.... but you .... didn't pay much attention on this:
Well I think I just pointed out his profit from the issue.

CIA against British agent
Skripal was ex-Russian agent but as you say - he ended as a British one.
Americans would not attack their own agent, and they are mentially very close with Britain (same as Canada).

The Netsmov.
It is just that from time to time some of Putins political opponents disappears, or a criticizing him journalist have an accident.

As it goes for Syrian, Ukrainian or Chechen rebels - I do not feel them competent of doing any sensible action on British territory.