Combat Outcome - Chance, Luck or Real Math?

[kenc80]

Thx KGB, I feel a little better

[Manukai]

It's the 10th commandment in the 10 commandments (see Strategy forum).

KGB

Well I did read your 10 and Moonknight's 10 but they don't say that unit bonuses last through death. That fact has much larger implications. Additionally, I've read that the ambush bonus stacks, so for instance having multiple ghosts in the same stack does help from an ambush perspective. This is contrary to what you state in your 10th. To be clear, do ambush bonuses stack?

[KGB]

Well I did read your 10 and Moonknight's 10 but they don't say that unit bonuses last through death. That fact has much larger implications.

True, I didn't. I assumed everyone knew that from Warlords 2-3.

You are always smart to ask when you don't know/aren't sure. That's not a commandment but it would be the 11th or could be a corollary to the 10th.

Additionally, I've read that the ambush bonus stacks, so for instance having multiple ghosts in the same stack does help from an ambush perspective. This is contrary to what you state in your 10th. To be clear, do ambush bonuses stack?

Multiple Ghosts definitely 100% stack (Ambush is sort of a different skill than other stack skills like Morale/Fear/Chaos/Leadership/Siege/Fortify/Negate(s)). In fact there are some items that give group ambush that also stack with Ghosts.

KGB

[Manukai]

Do wolf riders chance to ambush stack along with ghosts?

[KGB]

Manukai,

Nope. The Wolfrider and Orc ambush is a personal skill only for that unit. Only the Ghost has the stack version of that skill.

KGB

[Manukai]

In my experience so far with this game it all comes down to the roll of the dice. A low roll from a scout can injure or kill a dragon despite the chance possible outcome. You can weight things as much as you want but I've seen a scout and light cavalry take out a red dragon with hero behind it, see below. Likewise I just don't get why an eagle would have so many battle points against other flying units, it just doesn't make sense.

So in the end it is luck. It all comes down to the luck of the dice.


Battle roll:4
Attacker chance:(88.02%)
Defender chance:(11.98%)
Attackers: RedDragon is injured

Battle roll:80
Attacker chance:(88.02%)
Defender chance:(11.98%)
Defenders: Scout is slayed

Ambush roll:
Defender: Scout rolls 22 (0) Miss!


Battle roll:89
Attacker chance:(85.1%)
Defender chance:(14.9%)
Defenders: Scout is injured

Battle roll:63
Attacker chance:(85.1%)
Defender chance:(14.9%)
Defenders: Scout is slayed

Ambush roll:
Defender: LightCavalry rolls 67 (0) Miss!


Battle roll:12
Attacker chance:(85.1%)
Defender chance:(14.9%)
Attackers: RedDragon is slayed

[Draxus]

90% advantage might guaranteed you win the battle but doesn't mean your precious red dragon will make it through...or your green dragon...I am looking at your Gorbash.

I have gone into some battles with 95-100% and still been wiped out to a dingle man by a force with average 30 less battle each.

I also think it adds confusion that the bonuses from the opposing side are not always accurate to the battle numbers shown. The actual bonuses are used in the fight, just not always accurately displayed on the main battle screen. This I think leads, and I have too, to the WTF moment of that cannot be possible. Then I notice a +15 bonus it isn't showing on the heavy infantry so they are actually 30 when they are showing just 15. Makes how they knocked out my Griffin make a little more sense...

[KGB]

What Draxus says about 90% doesn't guarantee 'no losses' is correct.

Also in the example you show, it's 2 scouts and 1 Lt Calv, not 1 scout and 1 Lt Calv. So there are really 3 units striking against the Red Dragon and the scout gets an anti-air bonus of +5. The more units your Dragon faces, the more likely he's going to get damaged and die.

Units like Dragons and Heroes *should never* be facing enemy units unless you are really desperate or involved in a big hero battle. Those units are far too valuable to be in battle. They require lots of cannon fodder up front in order to protect them.

Eagles get a large bonus against fliers because there was a desire to have a 2 turn flight unit that could combat all the other flight units in the game to prevent flying stacks from running rampant. The Eagle is a natural hunter (think Giant Eagles of LOTR, not normal Eagles) that fills the role nicely while at the same time not having much value against ground units.

KGB

[Manukai]

What Draxus says about 90% doesn't guarantee 'no losses' is correct.
Also in the example you show, it's 2 scouts and 1 Lt Calv, not 1 scout and 1 Lt Calv. So there are really 3 units striking against the Red Dragon and the scout gets an anti-air bonus of +5. The more units your Dragon faces, the more likely he's going to get damaged and die.

So, when attacking are there actually all the units in the stack attacking against that one unit alone? I thought it was unit against unit with any combo bonuses the stack had when engaging in combat. If it is really 2 scouts and 1 lt calv attacking the dragon at the same time is it my hero and dragon defending at the same time or just my dragon defending with any bonus applied from my hero? Then this leads to an important question, is it better to attack or defend when given the opportunity to do both?

Oh and I've seen scouts and crows take out an entire stack of pikemen and heavy cav in a city with just a hero and dragon behind them so I understand the value of having those core units backing up the stack. In this situation I had taken a hero and several flying units on a covert city sacking campaign and that's what happened after razing their 5th city, losing a couple up front fliers at previous cities.

Eagles get a large bonus against fliers because there was a desire to have a 2 turn flight unit that could combat all the other flight units in the game to prevent flying stacks from running rampant. The Eagle is a natural hunter (think Giant Eagles of LOTR, not normal Eagles) that fills the role nicely while at the same time not having much value against ground units.

Makes sense knowing the background of why they were given that ability but they should be renamed to "Giant Super Killer Eagle" and be given a larger graphic unit size to be more representative of their capability.

[kenc80]

So, when attacking are there actually all the units in the stack attacking against that one unit alone? I thought it was unit against unit with any combo bonuses the stack had when engaging in combat.

Correct it is one versus one at a time. KGB is referring to each battle's cumulative effect on the dragon's survival chance.