Combat Outcome - Chance, Luck or Real Math?

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Re: Combat Outcome - Chance, Luck or Real Math?

Postby hungrytales » Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:02 am

Units like Dragons and Heroes *should never* be facing enemy units unless you are really desperate or involved in a big hero battle. Those units are far too valuable to be in battle. They require lots of cannon fodder up front in order to protect them.

That's a general rule, right. But when it comes to dragons, you can't ignore their maneuverability and their single-unit power. That means that against single-unit armies and places guarded by single units you stand pretty nice chance of winning (82% against HI guarding a +10 city if my numbers add up) and as every good bridge player can assure you - when there's a nice, fat chance of winning, it's prudent strategy not to hesitate and take it :). All of it means that you'll rather see weathered veterans using their (especially first) dragon to rush their opponent (I point my accusing finger at you, ChickenChaser :P) or to conquer a lot of hard-to-access cities ASAP than parading them across the map in stacks chockful of LI.

@Manukai: don't want to be harsh here, but seriously, you seem so clueless sometimes I start to wonder if it's not feigned for some twisted forum-ish amusement of yours :>
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Re: Combat Outcome - Chance, Luck or Real Math?

Postby KGB » Fri Dec 16, 2011 5:38 pm

HungryTales,

hungrytales wrote: and as every good bridge player can assure you - when there's a nice, fat chance of winning, it's prudent strategy not to hesitate and take it :).


I thought *good* bridge players knew when to finesse and when not to finesse tricks. As in you *never* finesse tricks to make your contract when you don't have to. In the case of sending a Dragon alone to conquer cities you *never* have to make that risk.

hungrytales wrote: All of it means that you'll rather see weathered veterans using their (especially first) dragon to rush their opponent (I point my accusing finger at you, ChickenChaser :P) or to conquer a lot of hard-to-access cities ASAP than parading them across the map in stacks chockful of LI.


Weathered veterans such as myself never risk their Dragons. You odds calculation was close (it's 85% or 7/8). But why finesse for 7/8 chance to make a single over trick but risk the whole contract when you can simply be 100% guaranteed make your contract (but not get an over trick) by adding 1 crow with the dragon so that you can never lose the Dragon? When I am using my Dragons to range and take neutrals I always always buy a Crow in each city to travel with the Dragon to the next city. That way my Dragon lives a long and prosperous life :)

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Re: Combat Outcome - Chance, Luck or Real Math?

Postby strach » Sat Dec 17, 2011 7:33 pm

same as KGB on that... I almost never risk loosing a hero, dragon or other supporting unit to achieve such a minor goal as capturing someone's city. I never send my dragon on enemy's territory without backup.

since we are on the subject of dragons and crows, I havent seen them lately. many people say that it is a very good tactic to use blessed crows plus a dragon, but I have never been attacked by such a squad. the other thing is that there are very few good players playing FFA right now...
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Re: Combat Outcome - Chance, Luck or Real Math?

Postby KGB » Sat Dec 17, 2011 10:13 pm

Strach,

strach wrote: the other thing is that there are very few good players playing FFA right now...


I've talked about this on several occasions. All the better players either are playing 1-1 or team games which are much more popular than FFA and IMHO much more interesting to play.

In fact I've never seen an FFA game with multiple good players in it (as in 4 or more). I'm not even sure such a game is feasible since it will by virtue of good players playing degenerate into alliances anyway. I just use FFA games now to experiment with ideas/tactics/strategies. Most of the time in a 6-8 player FFA I find 2-3 players will timeout/quit very early on and winning such games is heavily influenced by being next to those players or picking on known weak players to knock them out.

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Re: Combat Outcome - Chance, Luck or Real Math?

Postby magian » Sun Dec 18, 2011 1:14 am

Dragons and crows can be very effective, or not, depending on your opponent's builds. Elves are (perhaps a little too) effective against flying raiders. Eagles are also very effective against fliers (but are more specialized).

Other than a bit of gold, you lose nothing by buying elves. They are stronger than most 1 turn units, faster than most, get a move and combat bonus in a commonly used terrain, and punch well above their weight class against those pesky fliers.
Last edited by magian on Sun Dec 18, 2011 1:33 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Combat Outcome - Chance, Luck or Real Math?

Postby Draxus » Sun Dec 18, 2011 1:25 am

strach wrote:many people say that it is a very good tactic to use blessed crows plus a dragon, but I have never been attacked by such a squad. the other thing is that there are very few good players playing FFA right now...


I won't profess to be good but I am actually trying the blessed crow + red dragon stack in a FFA, or about to. Didn't really plan on it but I have my red sitting in a city right next to a temple and a couple o crow cities within flying distance. Seems like a good idea to me unless the other team is elf heavy. I am playing on a Rivalry on an island with rivers chopping it up. Being able to fly has helped knock one guy out of the game so far. Annoying that he did his suicide runs on me before quitting but all's good yo.

Also helps that I started with enough gold that with a couple of pillages I had bought red production on turn 2.
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Re: Combat Outcome - Chance, Luck or Real Math?

Postby hungrytales » Sun Dec 18, 2011 8:33 pm

strach wrote:I almost never risk loosing a hero, dragon or other supporting unit to achieve such a minor goal as capturing someone's city.

It depends on the map. There are many where it's nothing like a minor goal but rather a make-or-brake move. Still, I accept KGB's point on adding a crow(s). It doesn't cost much and it doesn't change dragon's maneuverability significantly.
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Re: Combat Outcome - Chance, Luck or Real Math?

Postby Manukai » Mon Dec 19, 2011 10:08 pm

hungrytales wrote:@Manukai: don't want to be harsh here, but seriously, you seem so clueless sometimes I start to wonder if it's not feigned for some twisted forum-ish amusement of yours :>


Can't help but to be insulted by your comment. My apologies for even questioning how the game is designed.

I played Warlords back in the early 90's but never the successor games. Honestly can't say I'm a veteran to this game. I don't know every unit bonus by memory, I look up unit bonuses often. Maybe I am clueless or maybe it's just that I'm new to the game. Sorry if my stupid questions offend you.

I think a lot of what should be intuitive in this game isn't. So, an eagle taking out dragons is not intuitive. Now, a super eagle with fireproof armor maybe ok (tongue in cheek btw). I've seen a lot of ridiculous outcomes so I've come to the conclusion that a lot of what happens in combat is based on the luck of the dice. I've also seen a lot of bugs. For example, I've seen when I move units into a temple for blessings and the server gets out of sync that the units don't get blessed. So, can I trust that an outcome is by design? I know and understand this game is in beta and so this is to be expected. That's fine with me, I'm just looking to understand how it works. How is that wrong?

I'm starting to smell an elitist vibe with some of the people on these forums. What you need to keep in mind is that not everybody is good at everything. I could be excellent at FPS games or I could be an exceptional chess player, I could be a multi-millionaire attorney and I could have climbed K2 for all you know. To look down on people for what they don't know just shows me how much you need to feel good that you're a great Warbarons player.
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Re: Combat Outcome - Chance, Luck or Real Math?

Postby magian » Mon Dec 19, 2011 10:49 pm

Manukai, I agree with you that many features are not very intuitive. The bonus system is particularly complex (see other posts). But, considering that the game is still in the beta stages, and that the entire programming team consists of Piranha and Snotling, warbarons is pretty fantastic.

Coincidentally, In other posts I have advocated that the eagle's anti-air bonus is too large, and that the red dragon should have 3 wounds and a slightly lower morale bonus.
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Re: Combat Outcome - Chance, Luck or Real Math?

Postby hungrytales » Thu Dec 22, 2011 1:09 am

Manukai,

Don't get me wrong. It's great when there's a vibrant community to a game - questioning and answering, all fine. And I'm far from discouraging anybody from posting as long as what he or she says keeps me more interested than confused. I felt confused reading your posts. Sorry, maybe it's me who's clueless, but tell me please what's the point in raising this:
combat is based on the luck of the dice

So it was in Warlords and it is still in all the vast expanse of games ranging from pen-and-paper RPGs to boardgames. Most good games have element of luck to spice things up a bit, where's the harm?

Eagles beating dragons is not intuitive? Are crows beating pikeman? Is it more intuitive or less than killing an airborne gryphon with a battering ram? Frankly, I find sandworms to be the most unintuitive of them all, but would adding Fremen actually improve them any bit? ;)

And lastly, aren't you aware that an elitist vibe wouldn't really be much out of place here? We are in the end the last guardians of the sacred flame of turn-based strategy, aren't we? :) Dying genre on a dying platform. We are the precious few. We ARE the elite.
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