battle calculator

[strach]

I have been thinking about it for a long time, but I have never had time to write about it. so in many posts some of you guys have presented detailed calculations of expected battle outcomes. I remember that KGB posted the program to count those numbers, but - believe me or not - not everyone are so into computers as you are. In fact warbarons is the only game I play on computer (besides online chess), and apart form that I use my PC only to surf on the net, and as a typing machine. So it would be great if someone would create some kind of a browser battle calculator, so we can all have acess to the legitimate numbers. right now, I have to put down everything on a piece of paper and estimate or assess is it worth to fight particular battle - not to mention that it is very hard to estimate wether you reached the 90% or not. this is kind of a fun mathematical problem, but I guess everyone should have equal chances.

[KGB]

I think if Piranha/SnotlinG wanted a battle calculator they could have very very easily included one in the game (as Warlords 2 did). You'd just click on an enemy stack and it would show the odds. I assume they don't because they don't want players getting the exact odds for every battle. Which means the experience you have gotten from actually playing counts for something.

Now I do indeed have a crude calculator (I have to hand work out all the bonus's for each stack and then add/subtract from each units strength accordingly before I run to get the odds) but I wouldn't improve it to automatically do that, nor would I put it online unless Piranha/SnotlinG were OK with it.

It takes a lot out of the game if players are simply running to the battle calculator before every combat and entering all the units to see if they reach the magic 90% or are 50% likely to win etc. In fact one could make the argument that in Ladder games that the combat screen show NO bonus's/numbers for either side and simply show the results just to handle the case that some players may have written their own calculator.

KGB

[kenc80]

In fact one could make the argument that in Ladder games that the combat screen show NO bonus's/numbers for either side and simply show the results just to handle the case that some players may have written their own calculator.

KGB, I would agree with that. Its been good to have in beta as we have been helping make sure bonuses and items are being correctly applied but once the system stabilizes and we start to emerge from beta, I would be in favor of that.

[strach]

I get your point KGB, but isn't it kind of unfair that some players do have the calculator, and others don't?
what do you mean that numbers in ladder games would not be shown? that you would not know what is your enemy's unit strength? that would be ridiculous.

on one hand calucalting the battles requires a lot of experience and is fun of it's own, on the other if your opponents have acess to the accurate data, and you have to "ballpark" (dont know if that's a adequate word) everything it isnt right.

[kenc80]

no strach, if KGB doesnt know the values and bonuses of the opponent, especially in ladder games. His calculator wont help him.

[KGB]

Strach,

Shortly there will be 3 types of games you can play:

1) Fun
2) Ladder
3) Simultaneous (fun or ladder makes no difference)

For Fun games, I think the battle screen should continue to show everything it does now. This makes fun games a learning tool for players to see the numbers in the battle and get an idea of how bonus's work/are applied etc.

Ladder games currently already hide the number of enemy cities/heroes/gold/armies etc. My point was Ladder game should hide everything in the battle screen as well. All it should show is the armies involved on both sides, who won/lost, what units died on both sides and nothing more.

Otherwise if you don't hide everything in Ladder games and I (or someone else) writes a battle calculator what will happen is: (1) You attack an enemy stack with a crow to see the units/bonus/blessings etc. (2) You go to the calculator and enter all the enemy units and all the units in a stack you might want to attack with. (3) Now knowing the exact odds you'll decide to attack or not. This would probably save many players lots of lost battles when they are surprised at the enemy bonus's from items, blessed units, terrain etc.

This will happen because with 1-5 days to finish a turn you can at your leisure easily run every battle if you want to. This is why I think it's a bad idea to provide a calculator and why Ladder games should not show any numbers because then no one could have a battle calculator advantage since as KenC noted, without the numbers and bonus's you can't know what the odds will be.

Simultaneous games don't suffer the above problem. Simply because you'll only have a few minutes to do a whole turn and by the time you ran one calculation your turn would be over or you may be attacked 10 times or the enemy stack may have moved away. So simultaneous battles can show all the numbers like fun games since no one will spend more than 2 seconds looking at a battle result.

KGB

[strach]

so there will be only 2 things that are hidden:
- if the army is blessed,
- what is the total bonus added by the hero,
because everything else doesn't change, right?

so still - if you do know what your opponent's army bonuses are (because you know there's no temple around, he doesn't have a hero, he has a "fresh" hero etc) - you can still use your calculator to determine the chances. and even if there is a hero you can use your calculator to determine 3 or 4 possible cases (i.e. +6. +9. +18 hero bonus). in fact that would give person having the calculator even greater advantage, because no one would make so many calculations in head, and you will quickly count 3 or 4 options on your program.

so, as I demonstrated, everyone should have a calculator. the fact that we all got it would not decrease strategic quality of the game, because you still have to decide wether it is profitable to attack the other stack having only 75% chances or not.

right now, you have a huge advantage having the calculator, because it is essential (especially at the early stages) to know wether you are over the 90% or not. that means for exemple loosing one turn to wait for another LI to join your hero. it's like in chess - one turn means a lot in the openning...-

[KGB]

Strach,

so there will be only 2 things that are hidden:
- if the army is blessed,
- what is the total bonus added by the hero,
because everything else doesn't change, right?

At the moment yes. However hero bonus is more than just leadership/chaos/both as it can also include ambush. I would suspect that in the future as new skills/powers are added to the game that more and more things won't be directly observable.

so, as I demonstrated, everyone should have a calculator. the fact that we all got it would not decrease strategic quality of the game, because you still have to decide wether it is profitable to attack the other stack having only 75% chances or not.

Why should everyone have a calculator? My guess is half the players don't know the bonus system well enough to properly know what happens when Devils, Unicorns, Archons, Heroes, City Walls, Siege, Boats etc all enter battle along with other bonus units/skills like ambush, ignore city walls, anti-air. Knowing how that works and understanding it is a KEY part of the game. You don't have to mathematically get the exact numbers, because experience will tell you whether it's a good idea or not from playing many games and trying out many battles.

Also with a calculator you'd be able to play around with fight ordering (for example a Medusa attacks a Bat/Dragon. The order of the Bat/Dragon is HUGE in determining who wins since the Medusa could instant kill the Dragon if it was the first unit and so it's winning percentage will change dramatically) to maximize when your anti-air skill/ambush came into play etc. This leads to a lot of time spent trying to maximize the fight order to achieve the best possible winning percentage or save the best possible units.

right now, you have a huge advantage having the calculator, because it is essential (especially at the early stages) to know wether you are over the 90% or not. that means for exemple loosing one turn to wait for another LI to join your hero. it's like in chess - one turn means a lot in the openning...-

OK, this is an entirely different request. If you simply want to know the winning % against a lone neutral defender (for example how many 10 strength units it takes to beat a 25 strength defender like a Hv Infantry in a +5 defense city/Giant in a 0 defense city/Dwarf in a +10 defense city) I will be happy to provide some charts for some common battles like that. That's harmless, static information entirely different from providing calculations for every battle.

KGB

[strach]

KGB
you didn't answer my questions or reservations about the hidden bonuses thing. my thesis is that hiding bonuses will not make the calculator useless, but it will give those who have it even greater advantage than they already have.

right now, when everything is transparent I can count everything in my head with about 5% accuracy. that gives you some significant advantage in few situations - beginning of the game, when you can determine if your hero is >90%, and in some lat game stack battles, when the 90% is key to achieving some goal (e.g. you have to be sure that at least one unit survives).

but when everyhing will be hidden your calculator will help you to estimate possible outcomes and make a better decision, so your advantage will be become even greater

giving everyone acess to BC won't change anything because the question is not - what is the accurate outcome of particular battle, but the question always is: what kind of armies you want to produce, where to move your stacks, how many armies should you leave to protect your castles etc. so giving everyone a BC doesn't affect strategic qualities of the game, but gives everyone equal chances

[KGB]

Strach,

I thought I did answer your question about hiding the numbers? I said that in Ladder games they *should be* hidden while in Fun (or AI) games they *should not*. There will be no advantage to the calculator in Hidden Games since you will be playing by experience. The calculator won't be that helpful since you can't know all the bonus's like blessings/heroes/items/ambush chance etc. In the future I said the game will also VERY likely add new skills such as producing armies with more strength than normal (something that was possible in War2/DLR and has been asked for many times by players) that can't be accounted for in hidden settings.

Since you admit you already can estimate the percentages to within 5% you don't really need a calculator, you have learned by experience and by observing the Fun games/AI games results. You will always be able to do that so you will always be able to learn any adjustments the game undergoes.

Or let me put it another way. You said you also play Chess. Once upon a time I played competitively. You were free to learn as much as you wanted from books/experience/playing against a computer etc. But in tournaments it was obviously forbidden to bring in a book of Chess Openings to refer to while playing tournament games. One of the reasons I no longer play any more except in face-to-face games is that I found that when I played online it was clear that many players were simply running a chess game like Fritz in the background and I was playing a computer and not a person. If I wanted to do that there are lots of chess programs to play.

That's how I view Warbarons. You are free to see all the numbers/calculations in Fun Games and AI games to help you learn the game. But once you play a ladder game (or simultaneous turn game) you must rely entirely on your learned skills. I doubt any battle calculator will make much difference in a ladder game with everything hidden vs an experienced player who knows what wins/loses by experience. If you can already get all the battles within 5% you are doing better an a calculator will do in a hidden number setting.

So my point is the game doesn't need a calculator. In fact I think it would be much worse off as a game if it did have a calculator.

And if you are *that* worried about reaching the 90% magic number perhaps what the game can do is randomly pick a cut off percentage between say 5-12% for each game and not tell anyone what it is. Then that is the magic cut off number for that particular game.

KGB