unlucky

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Re: unlucky

Postby Pillager » Tue Nov 09, 2010 6:46 am

I've been playing quite a bit of warlords II deluxe recently. I stumbled on this site accidentally, while searching for custom scenarios. My last game was just a couple of days ago.
Pillager
 
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Re: unlucky

Postby Pillager » Wed Nov 10, 2010 2:59 pm

I'm not really a 'griffon superstack' person. I got that out of my system in the og warlords. In warlords 2 i tend to rely on 2 turn units, mainly giants, spiders, and heavy cav. I find that these guys have great bang for the buck in WII. However, In this enviromentment they seem to lack punch.

I have yet to see a giant kill two strength 3 units. This isn't a comment on one or two battles, but quite a few now. Even my giants fighting light cav in the hills have failed to kill 2. I had a group of str 6 giants crushed by a group of str 4 dwarves. The dwarves taking out twice as many of the big guys.

The odd thing is, I'm finding that the str 3 units mop the floor with the str 2 ones.

I am, quite frankly, baffled.
Pillager
 
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Re: unlucky

Postby KGB » Wed Nov 10, 2010 5:00 pm

Pillager,

Technically two 3 strength units = one 5 strength unit. 3 strength unit chance to hit is 3/20*15/20=11.25%. 5 strength unit chance to hit is 5/20*17/20=21.25. So the 5 strength unit hits twice as often and hence you need two 3 strength units to equal one 5 strength unit.

Personally I see a Giant kill 2 elves/Hv infantry/Lt cavalry all the time assuming no terrain/city bonus's in play.

Now, I also have seen the defeats you've noted. In Beta3 there is a smoothing algorithm added to prevent outlier outcomes (things less than 10% likely). But 8 Dwarves beating 6 Giants is well within the realm of possible even losing 4 dwarves is probably within the 90th percentile.

Now I will say this. The random number generator here seems to behave different than the real game. That may have to do with how often its seeded, the fact the server is running 24/7 vs a temporary game etc. Over long numbers of rolls it converges correctly but in short term numbers it appears to be pretty wild with the results (In another thread I manually charted 1000 rolls in the replay screen in one of my games).

Also there are some days when I can take a turn in 6-7 games and get no hero offers. Other days I get an offer in 6 of the 7 games. I tend to play my turns on days when the game is handing out heroes :)

KGB

P.S. 3 strength units should mop up 2 strength ones. They are more than 50% better as a unit. So an 8v8 battle should on average leave 3 units left.
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Re: unlucky

Postby Pillager » Sat Nov 13, 2010 3:00 am

I just had 2 giants kill 4 light cav each (in the hills and backed up by a demon). So, hopefully, the numbers will work themselves out eventually.
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